Breaking Catalysts

U.S. declares a national emergency (e.g. climate, border) in 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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Oil prices spike above $100/barrel at any point in 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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Federal Reserve Chair nominee announced by January 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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A SpaceX Starship orbital launch succeeds before end of 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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Saudi Arabia’s leadership transitions with a coup or major change by 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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A trillion-dollar U.S. stock index daily drop occurs (e.g. >10% in one day) by 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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North Korea conducts an ICBM test by the end of 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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A major cybersecurity hack (>$50M loss) hits a top U.S. tech firm by 2026

50% YES 50% NO

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U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling and triggers a default by mid-2026

50% YES 50% NO

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Conflict zone tensions escalating this week?

50% YES 50% NO

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